December 16, 2013 Last Updated 9:00 am

eMarketer report shows mobile is gobbling up digital ad growth at the expense of the desktop

eMarketer predicts slow, overall ad spending growth of just 0.41% next year, while mobile to continue to explode

This is the time of year for predictions, something TNM avoids like the plague. And, as judged by the silly article on Gigaom this morning, it is also the time for ridiculous conclusions. (The CEO of an app company says you should build apps – gee, what a surprise.)

But we’ll the crazy article and concentrate on what eMarketer has to say about next year’s digital ad market: they see things as continuing to move towards mobile, and that shouldn’t surprise anyone.

“Marketer now expects US mobile advertising spending to reach $9.60 billion by the end of this year, up 120.0% from $4.36 billion from 2012. Spending on ads served to desktops and laptops is expected to grow just 1.69% to $32.98, down from 6.60% growth last year,” eMarketer says.

“Overall, US digital ad spending, including paid media spending on ads appearing on all digital devices, will increase 15.72% this year to $42.58 billion.”

166074Basically eMarketer thinks that digital advertising targeted at the desktop will be flat next year, while mobile ads are expected to grow by 56 percent to $14.97 billion.

The one bright spot for the desktop would be video advertising.

If I have any reservations about predictions such as these it would be that it is increasingly hard to clearly differentiate between mobile ads and digital overall. A video pre-roll, for instance, can be both desktop and mobile. Then there is the issue of tablets.

But eMarketer sees a definite trend and it is hard to argue with them. Mobile continues to grow, and even a slowdown in smartphone sales won’t effect the growth of mobile advertising as there is a definite lag time between when a platform grows and when the advertising community shifts its focus.

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